We hear too many rumours and too much speculation about climate change and extreme weather. Our first step is to become aware of what is actually going on around us and how it is changing. For the “big picture”, this has two parts:
- Extreme weather that is the result of climate change.
- Climate change itself that is largely tied to Greenhouse Gasses (GHG) from various sources (not just people).
What we are primarily concerned with is the first point–the extreme weather. Adjusting our lifestyles may contribute to a much larger solution, but we need to make it through the season as well.
The Big Picture
We see changes in our climate as we look over the years. The sources aren’t quite as simple as “people driving cars”, but certain things need to be kept in mind:
- We are part of a global system. Canada could go to 0% emissions and the problem would remain. The USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides some context as does the Environment and Natural Resources site. Canada still ranks in the top 10 emitters one one hand but when we look at our percentage of GHG’s, it’s relatively modest compared to many. We need to do our part, but we might benefit from taking a more global view of the issue.
- While it’s a global system, coastal communities face unique kinds of exposure. The first is a relative lack of topography on at least one side. Mountain ranges and the like can provide barriers, redirect air masses, force precipitation and the like. Coastal communities are completely exposed on one side. Additionally, they are also exposed to impacts like coastal erosion, etc. that have their own impacts.
The big picture for us along the coast can be summarized rather simply: increased instability, less predictability, and greater potential for very significant (even extreme) impacts. This doesn’t mean the world is ending next week. It does mean that we have to pay attention.
On the “Resources” page you will find a list of hazard maps. These provide longer term views of what things like the sea level could be by 2050 and 2100. For many of us, that is a “next generation or two” issue but this is like a relay race. We run our leg and how we run our leg affects how much effort the next leg has to make.
Being Aware of Our Situation.
Having had over 30 years in the Security, Asset Protection, and Emergency Management communities, I have come across lots of technical terms that describe this step. They aren’t important in our case. We are really looking at answering these questions:
- What do need to survive and come out with?
- What kinds of events are likely to affect those and how badly?
- Are there any patterns to them?
- How much lead time do I have?
- What kinds of things can I do to (1) lessen their potential to affect me, (2) respond if things start going sideways, and (3) make recovering from them as easy as possible.
What We Need to Survive
This is going to vary from person-to-person and family-to-family. You can answer it by asking another question: Can I do without this? If you can do without it, for how long? We can live without electrical power (people did it for a long time), but when we rely on it for water and septic systems, the story changes,
This gets into what we used to call Critical Infrastructure Protection. Again, those looking at protecting countries have to have models and technical structures, but at the household level, not so much. Let’s break these down.
Our Critical Three (Energy, Transportation, Communications)
There are three services that we need up and running as much as possible. They basically support everything else. They are energy, transportation, and communications. If any one of these three go down, they affect our ability to use the others and they increase our headaches significantly. Without energy, we lose communications but we also lose the ability to get fuel. Without transportation, we disrupt the energy supply to things like backup generators and even if you call for help, none can get to you. Finally, communications because we need to understand what’s happened around us so we can deal with it.
So our first step is understanding the energy grid (and its backup services) around us, the various modes of transportation available and what they can move, and how good the telecommunications network is in our area.
The Next Level – Vital
Closely after these three come a number of services. Medical supplies, food, water, and emergency services fall into these. Of these, medical supplies and supports and water may be the most pressing for some people. Food we can manage with a little less sometimes. Emergency services are, on a good day, a comfort and, on a bad day, a life saver.
Our second step, therefore, is making sure we have enough of these to outlast any disruption in our first three services. This means having likely a month’s worth of medication on hand, enough potable water, non-perishable food items and ways to prepare them, and finally some basic things that can manage a local situation (life fire blankets or extinguishers, etc.) until help arrives.
At this level, you need to look at how much you need, how quickly you go through it, and how difficult it will be to get more of it.
How This Comes Together
In my locale, my critical three services are tenuous. The power can go out in a good breeze (though our local utility has been improving on that front) but we are not a priority for restoration. It can take a few days for a good storm and for a “Fiona”, we were ut for about twelve. Our road network is a single way in or out. It also has a number of points close to sea level meaning that there’s any number of ways that this place can end up cut off after a serious storm surge, etc. Those may take longer to fix and we need to understand that utility crews can work on what they cannot reach. Finally, telecommunications in many areas of the Eastern Shore (where I am) are frankly sub-par. Even major cellular providers don’t have what would be called great cellular service and it’s long distance to just about everything. Let’s just say that if something really big happens here, we’re going to be taking care of ourselves.
Being prepared isn’t about being certain. That doesn’t exist. You cannot quantify severe weather events and their impacts on you. It’s about being confident that you have your bases covered. Given my situation, I look at being essentially “out of service” for about a week with the possibility of two weeks for really bad events.
Looking at this, the first thing i need is a safe place for me and my family. Inside that place (shelter from the elements), heat is probably the next bit (these things don’t just happen when it’s warm out). My next priority is telecommunications followed by transportation or the ability to move if I need to.
After that, I know that water (both potable and the septic system) are the next important bits. Then comes food. Medications go without saying. Again, much of this exercise is about keeping this going. Answering how I can keep these things cobbled together in a manageable way is the basis of my plan.
Using this Site
Your first step would be to locate yourself on the map and in relation to the things around you. The “Resources” page has a number of different tools for mapping, identifying issues, seeing who’s saying what about conditions in the future. You can also use the “Current Conditions” page for other resources.
The Resources page has a number of lists (look for the tables) and guides to help get ready. That being said, these are guides and not checklists. Just blindly following them won’t get you to a safe spot. You need to look at your own conditions and situation. They are there to help, not direct.
Ultimately, if you’re really stuck, you can reach out through the site. I’m looking to put a contact form up for the site to help keep things relevant.