The active hurricane season begins 01 June 2025, but there are a few caveats. These are a combination of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast, some changes in how weather forecasting is being done south of the border, and some other factors.
First, Accuweather is predicting a 2025 season that mirrors the 2024 season. 2024 was one of the most intense and costliest on record. While Atlantic Canada was fortunate (unless on the Avalon Peninsula), the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are about the same level as last year. They are also raising concerns with respect to ocean temperatures being once again higher than normal. This means that storms may maintain their strength further northward or may intensify rapidly.
The Accuweather group also identifies the possibility that the named storms may begin before the “official start date” of the season.
Our second challenge lies in the forecasting of these storms. Most of the services rely on NOAA data. The challenge here is that NOAA services may be degraded as a result of the “efficiency cuts.” Reductions in balloon launches may undermine the overall understanding of the “weather system” from a model perspective.
For those living along the coastline, the clearest option is to maintain a level of vigilance to the various reporting centres (see the resources page). We should also remain vigilant for conditions like we saw with Fiona. The interaction between weather systems may be apparent later than normal.
Keeping this in mind may help avoid surprises. For links to information, see our Current Conditions and Resources pages.